Will it or Won’t it? Place Portland’s 2024 Housing Predictions
As if your inboxes aren’t full enough of dramatic headlines “predicting” what the economy and consequently the housing market will do in 2024, we thought we’d add to the list. To quote one of our favorite mortgage brokers, “Many will say that economic forecasting is like driving a car blindfolded and getting instructions from a person looking out the rear window. But that doesn't stop people and companies from taking periodic stabs at it.”
While none of us have a crystal ball, we hope that we’ve gained some personal relationship and trust so you can know our predictions are based on a lot of market education, experience, and data.
We strive to provide you with the most up to date, level headed, well rounded information possible so that we can help you decide if 2024 may include you buying or selling a property. As most of you know, a 12 month year (especially an election year!) can be a roller coaster of events and news headlines so it’s important to always remain nimble in those plans, HOWEVER, here are our hottest takes and predictions as we’re entrenched in the first week of the year:
Interest rates will remain in the 6’s for 2024. The good news is that they have pretty much dropped a FULL point since their peak in 2023. We were at one point hovering near 8 and this week you can likely secure an interest rate below 7% without paying points. Now, we’re no mortgage brokers, so we suggest you confirm and plan with your favorite one to dive into the data further. BUT, we do hang out with a lot of smart financial folks and our surmise of it all is that rates will continue to come down a bit but not dramatically. Keep in mind- 6’s are still below historic average numbers. Don’t believe us? Check out this graph:
If everything stays constant, 2024 home-prices will grow in the single digits. We think the Portland Metro area prices will grow between 2-5% depending on the area. According to Fannie Mae's latest forecast, total home sales for the United States in 2024 will be about 4.8 million, followed by a jump to 5.4 million in 2025. We’re predicting that Inventory of houses on the market will remain rather low which continues the competitive market and potential multiple offer trend. This is mostly due to folks with low interest rates not being motivated to move unless the situation really pencils out for them. The good news is that builders are having a more positive outlook on building new construction and are picking up the pace to build desperately needed new supply. This is a key factor in keeping affordability lower
There is a lot of movement that will be bubbling up in the next TWO years. It is predicted that there will be 7 million new babies born, 3 million marriages, 1.5 million divorces, 7 million people who turn 65, 4 million deaths, 4 million new jobs created, 50 million job switches, and the largest pool of potential buyers (Millennials) in our Nation’s history still vying to buy their first home. Our only conclusion with all of those statistics is that there will be a significant amount of people that need to buy and sell their homes creating an opportunity for you to jump in too.
That wraps it up! We know we threw a lot of information out there so please reach out if you’d like to talk further- you know we’d love it!
Sincerely,
Amy, Kristine, and Margo- The Place Portland Team